Causal Future State Tree (FRT)

A forward-looking simulation tool to verify if a change will bring the desired effects and preemptively block negative side-effects.

🎯 What Problem It Solves

Before launching a major change (e.g., new org structure or tools), people worry if it will work or cause unexpected damage. The FRT tests changes on paper to prevent new issues.

🧠 Thinking Logic & Core Concepts

FRT places the proposed change (Injection) at the root and traces forward to the Desired Effects (DEs). If a path leads to a negative side-effect, we design a companion action to block it.

📋 Newbie Step-by-Step Guide

1. Place Injections: Put your proposed change at the bottom.
2. Trace Forward: Work upward using 'If-Then' logic to see what happens next.
3. Ensure DEs: Verify that the main path leads to your desired goals.
4. Check Negative Branches: Look for side-effects.
5. Add Trimming Actions: Design additional steps to cut off negative paths.

💡 Classic Example

[Agile Daily Standup Case]

• Injection: Replace long weekly status meetings with a daily 15-min standup.
• Desired Effect: Better alignment, reduced information lag.
• Negative Branch: Team feels micromanaged, leading to lower morale.
• Trimming Action: Restrict standups to blockers only; forbid technical design debate or performance naming.